Climate Change Impact Assessment on Agriculture of Hanoi Rural Area

Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques

2019, Special Issue on Environment, Management and Economy, Pages: 1204-1208

J. Environ. Treat. Tech.

ISSN: 2309-1185

Journal web link: http://www.jett.dormaj.com

Climate Change Impact Assessment on

Agriculture of Hanoi Rural Area

Doan Huong Mai , Nguyen Thi Lan Anh , Phan Xuan Binh Minh , Nguyen Ngoc Mai , Do

Thi Xuyen , Bui Thi Hoa , Nguyen Anh Duc , Tran Ngoc My Hoa , Mai Minh Huong ,

Nguyen Van Hien¹

Faculty of Biology, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

National Center for Technological Progress, Ministry of Science and Technology

Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate change

Department of Agriculture and Rural Development

Received: 05/08/2019

Accepted: 20/11/2019

Published: 20/12/2019

Abstract

Vietnam is among the most vulnerable nations to climate change impacts. Climate change (CC). CC which can lead to serious

impacts on production, life, environment on a global scale, is one of the biggest challenges to human beings. According to some

data and information collected from surveys and reports, CC in Hanoi rural area is shown by higher temperatures, the decrease of

precipitation and extreme weather events which can bring about negative effects on agriculture and high risks to industry and social

as well as economic systems in the future. CC has been continued leading to comprehensive and deep changes in global

development and security, especially agricultural products such as livestock, cultivation, and aquaculture in Hanoi rural areas.

Keywords: Climate change, Agriculture, Breeding, Cultivation, Aquaculture, Rural area, Hanoi

marine, coastal and land ecosystems. Therefore, it is

Introduction

necessary to study the effects and impacts of CC in rural

areas along the outskirts of Hanoi in order to have

appropriate solutions or strategies promptly. Study area: The

study area is Hanoi rural area which includes 17 districts and

In the 21st century, climate change is considered to be

the human’s biggest challenge. Over the past few years, due

to climate change, the frequency and intensity of natural

disasters have increased, causing great human and property

losses, damaging socio-economic and cultural infrastructure,

and imposing negative impacts on the environment. The

approach to studying climate change impacts is a way to

achieve the sustainable development goals applied in many

countries. Especially in the context of international efforts to

mitigate and adapt to climate change in general and

urbanization in developing countries like Vietnam

particularly, the impact of climate change in rural areas is an

urgent issue that needs proper attention.

town locate in the central region of the Red River Delta,

Hanoi; bordering with Vinh Phuc and Thai Nguyen province

to the North; Ha Nam and Hoa Binh to the South; Bac Giang,

Bac Ninh, Hung Yen to the East; Hoa Binh and Phu Tho to

the West. After the administrative boundary expansion in

August 20018, the city covers an area of 3,324,92 푘푚 ,

located on both sides of the Red River, mainly on the right

back. The topography of Hanoi gradually lower from the

North to the South and from the West to the East with the

average height of 5 to 20 meters above sea level. 3/4 natural

area is plain, locating on the right bank of the Dam river on

both sides of Red River and tributaries of other rivers. The

area of hills and mountains is mostly in areas of My Duc,

Quoc Oai, Soc Son and Ba Vi districts, and which lower than

In Vietnam, CC has strong effects in regions, fields, and

regions, especially agriculture

– rural areas, natural

resources, and environment; coastal areas and two plains;

farmers, the poor and their livelihoods. With an important

role as a green corridor for inner-city areas, rural areas along

Hanoi’s suburbs are known as one of the sensitive

environments and greatly are affected by environmental

changes. The main cause of global CC is the rise of activities

generating greenhouse gas emissions, overexploitation of

sinks and greenhouse gas tanks such as biomass, forests,

1000m.

Hanoi’s climate is typical of the Northern region with a

tropical monsoon weather, the average rainfall is quite large,

about 114 rainy days per year. A characteristic feature is the

change and difference of hot and cold season: the summer

Corresponding author: Doan Huong Mai, Faculty of

Biology, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National

University, Hanoi. Email: doanhuongmai@hus.edu.vn.

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Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques

2019, Special Issue on Environment, Management and Economy, Pages: 1204-1208

which lasts from May to September is hot and rainy with an

average temperature of ꢀ9 퐶 and the winter is cold and less

Materials and Methods

표

The study carried out using Report “Weather and

rainy occurring between November and March of next year,

hydrological characteristics of Hanoi area in 2016, 2017,

018”. The result was derived using secondary data analysis,

표

and the end of the wet season with drizzle and 19,6 퐶 is the

average temperature. Along with transition periods in April

and October, Hanoi has a total of 4 seasons: spring, summer,

autumn, and winter. Hanoi belongs to the tropics receiving

abundant solar radiation all year round, high temperature and

abnormal changes such as in May 1926 with a record high

field observation, and survey method followed by specific

analysis to assess the impact of climate change. Secondary

data consist of meteorology data, extreme weather, natural

disaster, main natural resources, community distribution,

and main economic income was collected at the local district

and interview with the local leader. Some data, particularly

meteorological station and rain gauge station at Hanoi rural

area (14).

These data were analyzed to understand the changes in

the environment indicated by changes in weather recorded

by systematic machine and oral history by the local leaders.

Open interview acquiring experience of possible extreme

weather and natural disaster in the area is beneficial in this

study and most of the event supported by documented

evidence. The field observation was focused on the

livelihood of breeding, cultivation and aquaculture changes

observed by several researchers of various expertise. Field

observation is pivotal in confirming the condition and the

obvious site evident of the impact or changes. More gradual

of subtle evidence of climate change impact was assessed by

social and economic situation report and flood prevention

report of Hanoi, especially between 2014 and 2018 (15).

표

temperature of 4ꢀ,8 퐶 while the lowest temperature is ꢀ,7 퐶

in January of 1995.

The percentage of annual average relative humidity in

Hanoi fluctuates from 83 to 85, moreover, the highest and

lowest daily humidities are 98% and 64% respectively.

Three months of summer are the wettest period with an

average humidity of about 87% - 89% while the last months

of autumn and early winter are the driest, the humidity can

be below 80%. The average annual evaporation volume

between the regions from 800mm to less than 1000mm. The

first months of the rainy season (from May to July) have the

largest amount of evaporation of the year, however, the last

months of winter and spring (from January to April) have

the lowest amount of evaporation with drizzle and high

humidity. Hanoi has quite a heavy rainfall compared to other

provinces in the Northern Delta, especially in the mountains.

Ba Vi is the largest rain area in Hanoi because the average

total rainfall is 2100mm while the least rain area is the Day

dam, which is only 1500mm. In the delta area, the rainfall

increases gradually from the North to the South with a

relatively regular number of rainy days, about 130 to 140

days a year. Daily rainfall reaches 300-550mm and can

increase to 5-15% in 2050 and 2100 according to the climate

scenario (7).

Results and Discussions

The result and discussion are arranged according to the

approach taken from secondary data analysis followed by a

survey and interview. The secondary data analysis includes

the climate and extreme weather phenomenon, local

community livelihood and the vulnerability matrix of the

area against the natural disaster. Meanwhile, the result of a

survey and interview was table using Strength, Weakness,

Opportunity, and Threat (SWOT) analysis of the area.

Changing trend of some climate factors: By analysis of

data on the annual average temperature, Hanoi’s maximum

temperature at three meteorological stations: Lang, Ba Vi,

Ha Dong shows the temperature tends to gradually increase

over 44 years from 1975 to 2018 which is appropriate with

Livelihoods are simply understood as a means to ensure

human life. Livelihoods can be viewed at different levels,

with the most common being household-level livelihoods

(

3). The main sources of livelihood of Hanoi people are

agriculture, forestry, fishery, industry – construction and

services. Among those living in a rural area, livelihoods from

agriculture, forestry, and fishery play an important role and

are the main source of family income. The sustainability of

community livelihoods depends on many factors such as: the

ability to equip capital, labor qualifications, relationships in

the community and livelihood development policies (5). In

Hanoi, the impacts of CC in recent years have been greatly

affected the cultivation, husbandry and aquaculture

industries.

The challenge condition of livelihood in Hanoi rural area

that has possibility being impacted by the climate change

trigger the need to study and understand the climate change

extensively and identified the depth impact to the area. This

take into consideration the connection between the

environment (past, present) with the human as started by

Feenstra (6). Therefore, be able to propose adaptation

strategies in the light of increasingly complex impact of

climate change, reduce the impact of injury and improve

livelihoods of the local community (1,2,4,9,12,13,16).

“

The Climate change scenario and sea-level rise for Vietnam

–

MONRE 2016” (10).

According to the source of the hydro-meteorological

data center, the average annual temperature obtained at

Lang meteorological station from 1975 to 2018 has a

표

fluctuation from ꢀꢀ,9 퐶 to ꢀ5,4 퐶. The equation depicts the

annual heat as follows: y = 0,0376x + 23,332 (푅 = 0,5209).

The given chart below describes the upward trend of

표

maximum temperature during Summer from 3ꢀ,0 퐶 to

표

1,7 퐶 of Ba Vi meteorological station between April to

September from the year 1975 to 2018.

On the other hand, the trend of temperature increase if

more clearly shown by the decline of rainfall recorded in the

average annual rainfall and the number of rainy days in the

region from 1975 to 2018. The annual rainfall movement is

downward tren, particularly the average annual rainfall at Ha

Dong station tends to grow, showing an unstabilized change

in rainfall among areas in Hanoi. The total number of rainy

days of Lang, Ha Dong and Thach That station tends to

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2019, Special Issue on Environment, Management and Economy, Pages: 1204-1208

increase. Accompanying the report “Weather and

hydrological characteristics of Hanoi area” from 2016 to

Typically, the average annual rainfall and total number of

rainy days in the year is lower from 1975 to 2018 shown in

2 line graphs below.

2018, it shows that the rainfall in Hanoi tends to be in

shortage, leading to the lowest water level in the Red and

Day River could drop to 0,4-0,6m in February and March

each year, causing local water shortages and significant

impacts on human activities, changing the seasonal calendar,

crop structure, productivity and quality of crops such as rice,

maize and sugarcane.

Figure 3: The average total annual rainfall of Thach That rain

gauge station from 1975 to 2017

Figure 1: The average annual temperature of Lang meteorological

station from 1975 to 2018

Figure 4: The total number of rainy days in the year of Thach That

rain gauge station from 1975 to 2017

Extreme weather events: Community surveys combined

with collecting data from the reports “Weather

characteristics, hydrology in five areas of Hanoi” (from 2016

to 2018) shows that extreme weather events due to the

impacts of CC related to meteorology and hydrology have

abnormal changes, significantly affecting the livelihoods

and activities of the people, especially poor households (14).

These phenomena have been occurring in Hanoi with

increasing frequency and intensity in recent years.

Figure 2: The maximum summer temperature of Ba Vi

meteorological station from 1975 to 2018

It has a strong impact on the livelihoods of the

community, especially the poor and vulnerable households

Deep freeze, severe cold in recent years usually occurs

(

14). According to, the report by Ministry of Agriculture and

from December of previous year to March of next year, the

temperature drops to below 10 퐶, the duration of prolonged

periods is usually 4-7 days affecting the activities and life of

households with young children, the old and households

표

Rural Development, Institute of MARDIAE and supported

by research on climate change in Vietnam by Nguyen this

extreme drough is the evident of CC in the coutry (8, 11).

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2019, Special Issue on Environment, Management and Economy, Pages: 1204-1208

lacking knowledge. Moreover, the heat often occurs from

May to August every year, the highest temperature

sometimes up to 4ꢀ,5 퐶 affecting life, health, activities and

1 hectare of vegetables was deeply flooded. In 2018, the

winter happens continued for many days, causing the process

of cultivation to slow down compared to the seasonal

framework, causing 8,478 kg of sowed rice and 163,1

hectares of transplanted rice to die. In addition, there are

heavy rains in the rainy season, appearing suddenly and

lasting on a large scale, making 5,684 hectares of crops, rice

and fruit trees damaged in Quoc Oai, Ba Vi, Phuc Tho, and

Chuong My districts.

In order to adapt to the flooding situation in the rainy

season, the Hanoi Department of Agriculture and Rural

Development has directed to accelerate the planting

progress, implement the conversion of crop and livestock

structure in low-lying areas to minimize the damages caused

by floods. In the Winter-spring 2016 crop - the time Hanoi

was greatly affected by climate change, the water slowed

down compared to the year leading to rice and vegetables

extending the growth period, fruit trees producing late-

bearing fruit, localities were promote restructuring of crops,

seasons, planting of summer vegetables and crops, and

facilitating the expansion of the area of early winter crops,

the thermophilic group will have higher yields and economic

efficiency.

표

labor productivity, production of people in rural areas.

In addition, Hanoi often suffers from typhoons and

floods occurring from May to August in about 4 – 5 days,

and unexpected floods, strong winds, strong rainfall caused

losses to households and neighbors and arable land near

rivers. In recent years, there have been more heavy rains,

unseasonal heavy rains, and floods have become more

frequent with the frequency of 5-7 years. Floods and heavy

rains not only affect daily life but also cause economic

losses. In 2018, for example, the spillway caused prolonged

flooding, thousands of households evacuated from their

homes, and crops and livestock suffered heavy losses in

many communes in Chuong My district.

Livelihood sources of citizen in Hanoi: Livelihood from

agriculture, forestry and fishery plays an important role and

is the main source of income for rural households in Hanoi

rural areas from Report on social and economic situation

2014 – 2018. According to the table 1 from the Report on

social and economic situation 2014 – 2018, agriculture,

forestry, and fishery groups have a slower growth rate than

the general growth. The process of urbanization, CC and

extreme weather events (heavy rain, prolonged cold weather,

etc.) have directly affected agricultural production, causing

the added value decline causing the decrease of the growth

rate of the region I continuously (15).

CC impacts on agricultural production: CC in Hanoi

affects productivities, crop quality, even many crops are

almost lost. In 2014, the effects of typhoons and tropical

depressions caused moderate to heavy rainfall causing

The impacts of CC directly affect productivity,

production, and structure, not only for crops but also for

livestock and aquaculture. Deep freeze, severe cold, and

prolonged heavy rainfall caused both local floods and storms

combined with major impacts on the number of cattle,

poultry productivity and aquaculture area making difficulties

for the livelihoods of most people in some suburban districts.

Table 2: Summary of crop losses by the impact of natural

disasters occurring in Hanoi from 2014 to 2018

14,732 hectares of rice to be overturned, over 36 hectares of

fruit tree crops were affected and 633 hectares of other crops

were crushed and broken. In 2015, the weather was

unpredictable, the Winter-Spring crop sowed with warn

sunshine, high average temperature, so when the rice paddy

was completed, it grew up quickly until tillering, and then

less rainfall together with local pests caused rive

productivity decrease by 0,4% and sweet potato by 4,4%

compared to the same period of past year.

Table 1: Main livelihood source of people in Hanoi

In 2016, due to the impact of the deep freeze, severe cold

in early March 2016, 480 tons of fish were killed, estimated

losses of nearly 15 billion VND. In 2017, heavy rain lasted

in October 2017, causing 4,288 hectares of aquaculture

submerged (Ung Hoa 2,982 hectares; Quoc Oai 325

hectares). It is estimated that losses range from 100 million

VND to several hundred million for families with large scale

aquaculture models. More than 8,400 ducks were killed and

lost, and 325 and 126 hectares are lost in My Duc and

Source: (15)

In the following year, extreme hot weather appeared,

after that heavy rain caused widespread inundation, most of

the suburban districts of Hanoi were damaged. 4 districts of

Quoc Oai, Chuong My, Thach That and Phuc Tho have more

than 275 hectares of rice and 907,4 hectares of winter crops

were damaged; 76,8 hectares of fruit trees were flooded and

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2019, Special Issue on Environment, Management and Economy, Pages: 1204-1208

Chuong My respectively; thousands of cattle and poultry

died. In 2018, heavy rains lasted on July 2018, causing 102

hectares of aquaculture and 2,242 푚 of cages for fish

Ethical issue

Authors are aware of, and comply with, best practice in

publication ethics specifically with regard to authorship

ꢁ

farming district damaged or lost in the river of Ba Vi; both

Quoc Oai and Chuong My districts had 1,013 hectares of

aquaculture damaged and nearly 109,200 cattle and poultry

died and swept away.

(

avoidance of guest authorship), dual submission,

manipulation of figures, competing interests and compliance

with policies on research ethics. Authors adhere to

publication requirements that submitted work is original and

has not been published elsewhere in any language.

Table 3: Summary of losses in the livestock and

aquaculture sectors under the impact of natural disasters in

Hanoi from 2016 to 2018

Competing interests

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest

that would prejudice the impartiality of this scientific work.

Authors’ contribution

All authors of this study have a complete contribution

for data collection, data analyses and manuscript writing.

Conclusion

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표

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Acknowledgments

This research is funded by the Hanoi Department of

Science and Technology under project number 01X-10/05-

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people of all 18 districts and towns of Hanoi rural areas who

cooperatively contribute to the surveys and interviews.

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