Scenario Forecasting and Monitoring of Regional Development Clusters of Economic Entities

Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques

2020, Volume 8, Issue 4, Pages: 1594-1598

J. Environ. Treat. Tech.

ISSN: 2309-1185

Journal web link: http://www.jett.dormaj.com

https://doi.org/10.47277/JETT/8(4)1598

Scenario Forecasting and Monitoring of Regional

Development Clusters of Economic Entities

Alexander Sergeevich Rodionov *, Vladimir Borisovich Soloviev , Evgeny Vasilievich Sukhanov ,

Nikolay Viktorovich Valuyskov⁴

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

Znanstvene informacije, d.o.o., Ljubljana, Slovenia

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation Lipetsk branch, Lipetsk, Russia

Don State Technical University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Received: 25/06/2020

Accepted: 28/09/2020

Published: 20/12/2020

Abstract

Real-time management becomes a necessary condition for the sustainable development of economic entities in the context of uncertainty.

Regional development of the territory includes the creation of clusters to stimulate economic development. The scenario forecasting of the

sustainable functioning of economic entities, as well as a proactive risk-oriented approach to strengthening positive trends and reducing

negative consequences in the course of implementing decisions, are an important task. Monitoring as a means of conducting continuous gap

analysis is an important tool for such management. The authors develop a phenomenological approach to project management in the context

of instability and uncertainty of the business environment, to quantum thinking, dynamic planning, and control in the extreme project

management.

Keywords: Management, Clusters, Scenario forecasting, Sustainable development, Monitoring, Uncertainty, Business environment

world. The search for a solution still remains extremely relevant.

Introduction

Scenario forecasting and monitoring of the formation of

regional development clusters of economic entities are based on

the dualism of divergent and convergent thinking of the decision-

maker. On the one hand, this is a broad opportunity to enter the

world system of the sixth technological order of Industry 4.0,

while on the other hand, to become a Kenichi Ohmae’s cluster [2]

of one of the three world empires: the United States of America,

Europe, or China. Ohmae’s model, according to which a

successful strategist should focus on the three "C": Corporation,

Customer, and Competitors, has become world-famous. The three

The fundamentals of scenario forecasting, one of the ever-

evolving foresight methodologies of the "foresight professor"

H.G. Wells (1930), have earned recognition not only among

science fiction writers, but also in academic circles. Assessments

of the risks of life activity under various scenarios of planetary

development are reflected in the fundamental works of scientists

and practitioners. Within the framework of this article, the

scientific views of J.A. Schumpeter, N.D. Kondratyev, P.A.

Sorokin, N.N. Moiseev, P.G. Shchedrovitsky, G.G. Malinetskiy,

A. L. Lurie, V.V. Glushchenko, K. Ch. Abta, J. Martino and a

number of other public figures are of particular interest. Reports

to the Club of Rome being almost annual and published since the

late 60s of the 20th century could serve as an example of an

amazing scientific and practical contribution to ensuring the

sustainable development of civilization and its secure future.

In 1996, in his publication "Agony of Russia: Does it have a

future?", academician N.N. Moiseev attempted to analyze on a

system basis the problem of choice [1]. The three decades that

have passed since the transformational change called perestroika

"C", like living organisms, constantly interact in a strategic

triangle, whose vertices they are. "Mr. Strategy", as one of the five

global management gurus according to the Economist Magazine,

has maximally simplified the task of globalization and

denationalization of economic interests to three "C". The cluster

is a practical implementation of this paradigm.

2 Methodology

The research methodology is based on divergent thinking and

phenomenological analysis. This approach is preferable for

studying the phase space of events in the near and distant future

in conditions of uncertainty and instability (turbulence) of the

recent world development environment. The growth of the power

of many reference points of bifurcation in decision-making, an

(

1985 -1991), have not given an adequate answer to the

problematic questions posed by the academician about a decent

future, about country’s ability to influence it, and, the most

general issue, whether Russia has the right to choose its path, or

the country just represents "wagons at the marshaling yard" of the

Corresponding author: Alexander Sergeevich Rodionov, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow,

Russia. E-mail: rodionov.a.s@bk.ru

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2020, Volume 8, Issue 4, Pages: 1594-1598

obvious drift (approach) to the zones of singular transition to a

new quality of civilization development require an instant

reaction to the events taking place. The latter is impossible in the

context of the differentiation of sciences according to narrow

areas of cluster (convergent) thinking without a common integral

foresight vision of the planetary development. The primacy of the

technocratic approach to the realization of humanitarian values

threatens the "robotization" of the human population, its

disappearance as a biological species.

disciplines gives more than one trillion new research areas (higher

doctoral degree thesis). Today the society returns to the ideas of

A. Comte (1798-1857), the founder of positivism and sociology

as an independent science. In his classification of sciences

(hierarchy or pyramid of sciences), physics was followed by

chemistry and biology; while the pyramid of natural sciences was

completed by social physics – sociology [4].

Based on Comte’s views, the authors added four more

sciences to sociology: economics, ecology, cultural studies, and

political science. The synergy of the five sciences is called

Rodionov’s pentahedron [5]. The sector of ecology and

economics of life preservation is at the base of pentahedron,

economics and sociology are responsible for the quality of life,

sociology and cultural studies create people’s way of life, while

cultural studies and the ecology – life quality. The height of the

pentahedron from the intersection point of four diagonals to its

top sets the vector of responsibility of political science for the

LSA of the economic entity.

The strategy of searching for the cause, deductive (global)

thinking, and integral (conceptual) knowledge should replace the

content of the contemporary strategy. It is necessary to interrupt

the destructive (ostentatious) struggle with the consequence,

exclude the inductive (local) approach in solving urgent problems

of LSA, and stop in-depth differentiation in the training of

narrow-profile specialists who know everything about nothing. It

is necessary to enrich the key competencies of training with

experience in the possession of key resources in basic activities.

In scenario forecasting, it is important to keep in mind that

mathematically any movement of a liquid – from a ripple in a

puddle to a tsunami – represents a solution to the classical

hydrodynamics equations. Initial and boundary conditions

determine the cause and nature of the process under study. At that,

it is impossible to solve hydrodynamic equations written in

general form when considering a particular problem, since certain

assumptions should be considered in each specific case. The

implications of such assumptions may be of global significance.

Computer simulation of weather conducted by E.N. Lorenz has

revealed an unexpected "butterfly effect" – the flapping of

butterfly wings in Asia may affect the weather in New York [6].

Scenario forecasting of the formation of economic entities

development clusters is possible in two ways. One way was

considered above. This is the seizure of vital resources, the

militarization of the economy and society, and world hegemony.

The second way, which Russia has been defending in recent years

along with the right to preserve its identity, is the development of

the individual and society, general disarmament, and, peaceful

coexistence as a final result. Each of the tasks being solved to

change the world order, international rules-based system, and

outlook includes material (eco-), energy (ergo-), and socio-

information (ego-) aspects; contains the laws (-nomics), science

(-logic) and wisdom (-phy) of civilizational development. In the

authors’ interpretation, the first, material level includes

economics, i.e. the laws of coexistence, ecology – the science of

survival, and ecosophy – the wisdom of settlement. The second,

energy level includes ergonomics – the laws of energy

consumption, ergology – the science of power supply, ergosophy

Key research issues

Civilization is entering a new era of its development, namely,

information epoch. A unified field theory, in the context of the

development of humanity, can be considered as a synergy of three

field-based structures: material, energy, and information. When

studying the quantum nature of the universe, it has been noticed

that the combination of a certain number of similar structural units

inevitably leads to the appearance of a new system with new

systemic properties. At that, all units of the new structure become

its subsystems. The land, material power of the tellurocracy gives

way to the sea energy power of the thalassocracy . Therefore,

access to the sea is a key factor for tellurocratic Russia to ensure

the life-sustaining activity. The next overwhelming power was air

and space, as well as information potency. Atomistic theories of

the legally fixed primacy of the interests of the individual over the

interests of society in a continuum of changes lead to the "erosion

of law" to the level of egalitarianism. Developing the idea of Karl

Schmitt (1988-1985), one of the founders of the war theories, it

can be stated that in this case, national, traditional, cultural,

professional, and family conditions of preservation, level, way of

life, and quality of life disappear.

Taking into account the above, the main issues of the present

study were formulated in the Kenichi Ohmae format as five "C"

of the national strategy for life safety:

The strategy for selecting the key parameters to assess the

life-sustaining activity (LSA);

The strategy for organizing the implementation of key

parameters (IKP);

The strategy of motivation and monitoring the IKP and LSA;

The strategy of compliance of IKP and LSA;

Strategy for coordinating the IKP and LSA in real-time mode.

The strategy for selecting the key parameters to assess LSA is

based on a phenomenological approach, which in the authors’

publications is treated as the Rodionov’s paradigm. It is based on

a simple idea: the differentiation time in studying sciences

according to W. Humboldt (1767-1835) has long passed [3], as

well as the division of sciences into natural sciences and

humanities of modern age (the beginning of the 16 -17

centuries), which was the period of rapid development of

experimental science in Europe. Today, according to the authors,

modern age (19 -20 centuries) can be called super modern age.

In the information age, it is necessary to integrate all the sciences

into mega natural science. Recall that classical natural science

(

nature study) appeared more than 3000 years ago. In those early

days, there was no division of real knowledge into natural

sciences and humanities. Today, a simple combination of 15 basic

Tellurocracy is a type of civilization or state system that is clearly associated with the development of land territories and consistent penetration into inland

territories.

Thalassocracy is a state with primarily maritime realms, an empire at sea, or a seaborne empire.

From Latin continuum, meaning continuous, solid.

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–

the wisdom of power distribution. Finally, the third socio-

mandatory implementation become the "Bible" of the business

organization, the main goal of the economic entity with strict rules

and regulations. Material, moral, and career incentives for

employees depend entirely on the achievement of targets.

Preference is given to a linear and formalized system (standard

rules, templates, and procedures).

informational level includes egonomics – the laws of morality

ecological imperative), egology – the science of national culture

(

preservation and development, and egosophy – the wisdom of

cultural diplomacy.

The solution to the issue of the future of the global civilization

in the context of continuous differentiation of knowledge has lost

its primary basis. As the outstanding philosopher and logician of

Second, it is innovative quantum thinking, based on the

existence of a dynamic goal that changes its position in space and

time. The way to achieve results in such a situation is

unpredictable and must change as one gets closer to the goal. The

transience of changes and the speed of their appearance becomes

the norm of life, while a quick response to them is a condition for

survival. The importance and role of decision-makers and the

persons influencing the decision are sharply increasing. This

concerns any level executives from the CEO of the company to

the executive head of the nation. Any mistake or miscount can

lead to inevitable consequences. Decision-making executives

with the gift of a visionary become highly demanded. The

stagnant times have passed, and are now unlikely to ever return.

The ability to learn and retrain (Life Live Learning, life-long

learning, LLL) becomes mandatory for everyone. Professional

knowledge, skills, abilities, art, and mastery can become

unclaimed at any time, while the business entity can be declared

bankrupt. With the emergence of the Internet, innovation cannot

be stopped, and the power of the bureaucracy, as a deterrent on

the way of STP, has completely lost its strength. It is useless to

struggle against changes; they must be taken for granted. And it

is even better to participate directly in their appearance and

manifestation. Adaptability is more important than predictability.

In contemporary interpretation, strategy development also

requires a certain strategy. One can distinguish five stages of

changing the approach to strategy formation. At the first stage,

according to IBM (International Business Machines), "The big

companies eat up the little ones". In the second stage, according

to the BMW (Bavarian Motor Factories), "The fast companies eat

up slow ones". At the third stage, as proclaimed by J. Welch (J.

Francis "Jack" Welch, Jr., b. 1935) [13], the legendary CEO of

General Electric, it is important to be the first. The first, as a rule,

always gets 50% of the niche in the new market. Being an

organizer and able to survive is an actual strategy for ensuring a

safe life and activity. The concept of the product (service) life

cycle of a market economy, which has become a classic, is

described in the scientific literature in sufficient detail. One of the

first to put it forward in 1965 was the American economist Th.

Levitt (1925-2006) [14]. He identified four stages of the product

life circle, gave a description of each of the stages, and explained

why any product left the market over time. In a simplified form,

one can distinguish strategies in marketing, finance, production,

and personnel management at the four stages of developing

product market: product launch, growth, maturity, and decline.

Today, the concept of the product life cycle requires an extended

interpretation.

the 20 century, K. Popper (1902-1994) noted, with this

approach, each solution to a problem generated new problems [7,

p. 274]. The situation is becoming critical. The cumulative effect

increases. The intensive use of natural resources is accompanied

by environmental pollution. Widespread implementation of

scientific and technological progress in the context of quasi-

market relations is accompanied by the aggravating of natural,

man-made, and socio-economic hazards and shocks. Emergencies

that used to happen once every 100 years now occur every 10

years. The consequences are becoming more dangerous for the

economy, the population, and the environment. Direct and

indirect damages from emergencies reach 4-5% of the gross

national product of the Russian Federation. Given the fact that

Russia is rich in natural and human resources, has a huge potential

for LSA, it is of undoubted interest for territorial claims,

"friendly" or hostile absorption by several militarily strong states

of the world. The problems around the Arctic and Antarctic are

also becoming quite urgent.

The web-style of safe LSA in the digital economy assumes

that the speed of obtaining and amounts of relevant information

tend to the maximum, while the time for its awareness for

practical implementation is minimized. The open mind and

broader vision of an ordinary observer give way to the overmind

of an entrepreneur, myth designer with a "sliding horizon

(

gradient) of planning" for at least five years. Real-time

management implies that in a planned "cold" economy, strategic

guidelines can be revised every 3-5 years, while for a "warm"

market economy – every year. An innovative, "hot" economy

requires adjusting five-year goals and targets every quarter.

"Plasma digital economy" involves monthly updating of the

development strategy for the next five years.

Monitoring of the sustainable development of economic

entities (EE) in an uncertain and unstable business environment

requires possession of new quantum thinking. In contrast to the

linear mechanistic approach of the worldview of the Newtonian

era (I. Newton, 1642-1727) [8], the paradigms of Einstein

(

A.Einstein, 1879-1955) [9], Planck (M. Planck, 1858-1947) [10],

and other geniuses of quantum physics qualitatively changed the

definitions of the universal laws. Following the logic of D.

DeCarlo, the well-known author of the business bestseller

"eXtreme Project Management" [11], the decision-maker and the

person influencing the decision should freely navigate in two

worldview models, two mental realities.

First, it is causative-consecutive thinking, where the life cycle

of management has, as it was shown in the works of Harvard

School Professor Larry Greiner [12], alternating creative and

bureaucratic development phases. His approach to the

organization as a living organism ("Evolution and Revolution as

Organizations Grow", 1972) is now widely acknowledged.

Minimization of any changes so far remains a distinctive feature

of the bureaucratic stage,

technological progress (STP), and the main obstacle to the

implementation of innovations. The directive plan and its

Today, tolerance to changes is a defining feature of the

business culture of the future. Its defining features are the

principle of delegating responsibility instead of directive

management, self-improvement and self-organization, and life-

long learning (LLL). All of the above has already become the

reality of today. Classical methods of managing material objects

and directing people are no longer effective. "Business @ the

Speed of Thought" is not only the title of a bestseller [15] by Bill

Gates (1955) but also a key factor in achieving success in the

a deterrent of scientific and

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business environment. The leadership style in quantum

management is characterized by searching for the desired result

rather than achieving it. The management methodology consists

in monitoring requirements, implementing changes at a high rate,

the continuous implementation of innovations, constant

technological improvement, and cross-functional organization of

the process. Uncertainty management represents the future

profession of futurists, who are gradually replacing marketers.

The viewpoint of "what is good and what is bad" today depends

on the particular situation and the standpoint of what is

happening. This is why the cultural aspect of change is so

important today, for example, acceptance (the ability to perceive

reality as it is) or rejection of such a mass phenomenon as

corruption.

responsibility of each person for the world structure and order,

outlook, and awareness is very important.

The Quantum World of the civilization progress did not want

to limit itself to the procrustean bed of an inanimate machine. The

society became aware of its dynamic properties, things

disappeared, and emotions revived, the craving for vital energy

appeared, and the purposeful search for new building blocks of

matter had lost its meaning. Billiard balls moving by the cue and

characterized by predicted contact interaction are replaced by the

"agents" – positions, impulses, particles, waves, masses, energies,

reactions to each other, and the external environment. And all this

occurs in the world web of relationships. Today the society is

abandoning the concept of predictability and starts thinking about

potentials. The Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that one

can measure either the particle's aspect or the wave’s aspect, i.e.

either location or energy, but it is impossible to measure both at

the same time.

The three-hundred-year cycle of classical science

development has ended. Newtonian mechanics has been replaced

by Einstein's theory of relativity. In the new world of quantum

and quark science, the building of the old worldview suddenly

became

museum exhibit of scientific achievements,

Conclusion

observations and insights, discoveries, and delusions. Over a long

time, society rejected everything that seemed to be pseudoscience

The path taken over digitizing the economy can be

characterized by the physical laws of motion: uniform (before the

9th century), uniformly accelerated (since 1858), and

(

cybernetics, genetics, etc.), everything that was not within the

framework of law or regularity understandable to every person.

Heretics were burned at the stake of the middle ages. Scientists

whose views did not fit into the procrustean bed of generally

recognized scientific schools were subjected to ridicule. It seemed

that one more effort and the world of science would become

logical and understandable as clockwork. Economists have

already predicted sustainable economic development without

crises and shocks. Time has amended. The crises remain. They

became a characteristic feature in almost all life spheres.

Pseudoscience cybernetics has become an advanced scientific

thought, and genetics – the basic technology of the new

technological order. The virtual life of society is crowding the

real-life activity. Virtual digital (crypto) currency generated by

miners "from the vacuum" of computer farms is universally

exchanged for real money. Practical experience and laboratory

tests gave priority to computational simulations and then

cognitive experiments.

Monitoring of the deviation of real changes from expected

indicators can be carried out using GAP analysis. Among the

identified reasons for deviations, the most common are the

following: time delay in implementation; hidden problems that

were not identified until the last moment; ineffective coordination

in eliminating the identified problems; diversion of forces and

funds for the rehabilitation of emergencies; lack of proper

professionalism and required competencies (unconscious

incompetence), revealed only during the implementation of the

tasks being solved; and the impact of uncontrolled factors of the

business environment (sanctions, competitors). Moreover, there

might emerge other new reasons.

accelerated (the end of the 20 century). Before the age of the

telegraph, this was "material" process of transmitting

information, limited by the speed of the courier service. The

electromagnetic telegraph freed information communications

from spatial and temporal material restrictions and revolutionized

the global economy and social relations. Flows of electric energy,

electricity-based way of life allowed the civilization to make a

qualitative leap in its development. Air wireless Internet in the

90s of the 20 century covered the information sphere of the

planet with the World Wide Web (www). Today the society lives

in the sixth technological order (2010-2050) of the information

revolution [17, p. 80]. Its core is interpenetration or NBICS-

convergence (Nano-, Bio-, Info-, Cogito-, Socio-) of nano-, bio-,

info- cognitive (thinking), and social technologies. The seventh

technological order of civilization development should directly

connect human thinking (consciousness) to the infrastructure of

Industry N.0 (currently, industry 4.0), bypassing the latent phase

of passing knowledge through the filter of science. In the authors’

paradigm [18, 19], the key indicators of scenario forecasting of

clusters formation of economic entities' LSA are: 1) preserving

life and favorable conditions of LSA of both economic entities

and population in general; 2) a decent level of LSA; 3) national

way of life; 4) quality of LSA. The synergy of four indicators and

state compliance is a necessary condition for well-being. Creating

clusters seems valuable for the target project, rather than for

differentiated narrow areas of LSA. Examples of such integrated

clusters today are multi-universities and science towns. Having

passed several technological stages, advanced countries are

entering the sixth stage of NBICS-technologies, the stage of

territorial clusters, virtual reality of the information age,

knowledge economy, and reframing of ideas and worldviews. At

a time when the amount of information has grown exponentially

by six orders of magnitude, education has become imageless and

ugly without visualizing the sustainable development of the world

in specific images and scenarios of the future. Monitoring the

sustainable development of economic entities in the context of

uncertainty, extreme management in real-time mode is now a

necessary condition for survival and ensuring the safety of the

LSA. Planned figures and decision-making management have

Relatively recently, sociologist Z. Bauman (1925-2017) [16]

introduced the concept of Liquid Society (LS) - a society that is

in a liquid state, adding this concept to already known two social

structures of Land Power and Sea Power. Bauman detected the

transition from a dense, structured world, burdened with a whole

network of social conditions and obligations to a plastic, fluid

world, free of fences, barriers, and borders. In the digital age,

getting information does not require direct communication among

people. A person isolates from society with the illusion of

independence from it. Therefore, education of the sense of

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2020, Volume 8, Issue 4, Pages: 1594-1598

been consigned to history. Quantitative factors of business

success are replaced by their qualitative content, which causes an

emotional response in both the consumer and the manufacturer of

goods and services. The digitalization of goods and services

offered by economic entities gives them mental features.

Understanding the way of thinking, the general spiritual mood of

[10]Plank M. General Mechanics: Introduction to Theoretical Physics.

Part 1. London: Macmillan and Co., Limited; 1932.

[

11]DeCarlo D. eXtreme Project Management: Using Leadership,

Principles, and Tools to Deliver Value in the Face of Volatility

Moscow: Kompaniya p.m. Office; 2005.

[12]Greiner LE. Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow. Saint

Petersburg University Bulletin. 2002; 2:76-92.

person, and groups becomes

driver of sustainable

[13]Welch J, Welch S. The Winning. London: Harper; 2007.

[14]Levitt T. Exploit the Product Life Cycle. Harvard Business Review.

1965; 43:81-94.

development, determines the market trajectory of the successful

promotion of an economic entity in a competitive business

environment. The principle, which is brilliant in its predictive

value, still needs to be understood in relation to the socio-cultural

and economic environment. The destructive emotional energy of

the "revolutionary masses" is still more attractive and

understandable to the majority of the population. The launch of

the energy of creation in anticipation of the embodiment of the

[

15]Gates B. Business @ the Speed of Thought: Succeeding in the Digital

Economy. Moscow: Eksmo; 2003.

16]Bauman Z. Liquid Modernity and Power: A dialogue with Zygmunt

Bauman. Journal of Power. 2008; 1(2):111-130.

17]Glazyev SYu. Strategiya operezhayushchego razvitiya Rossii v

usloviyah global'nogo krizisa [Strategy of advanced development of

Russia in the context of the global crisis]. Moscow: Ekonomika;

2010. 255 p.

"ghost of communism" has exhausted itself. A full-fledged

optimistic scenario of world development is needed with clear

indication of reference points and singularity zones of the threat

to the very existence of mankind.

[18]Rodionov AS. Ekonomika chrezvychajnyh situacij: ot likvidacii

posledstvij normal'noj zhiznedeyatel'nosti [The economy of

emergencies: From the elimination of consequences to normal life

activity]. Economy. Business. Banks. 2020; 2(40):9-35.

19]Rodionov AS. Cifrovaya ekonomika v global'nom kontekste [The

digital economy in a global context]. Economy. Business. Banks.

2020; 4(42):20-38.

[

Ethical issue

Authors are aware of, and comply with, best practice in

publication ethics specifically with regard to authorship

(

avoidance of guest authorship), dual submission, manipulation

of figures, competing interests and compliance with policies on

research ethics. Authors adhere to publication requirements that

submitted work is original and has not been published elsewhere

in any language.

Competing interests

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest that

would prejudice the impartiality of this scientific work.

Authors’ contribution

All authors of this study have a complete contribution for data

collection, data analyses and manuscript writing.

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